The 2026 Midterms
Forecast and final-month response scenarios
A dated forecast of House and Senate outcomes, with a separate examination of conventional and extraordinary response scenarios.
The argument
The forecast distinguishes the national environment from district-level seat translation and treats the Senate as a separate race-level problem. Sensitivity analysis shows how shared polling error or a changed national environment can alter control probabilities.
How to read this assessment
This is the October 5 edition, with forecast inputs through October 4. It is a historical snapshot of the analysis, not a live polling dashboard. The model’s probabilities have not been validated by out-of-sample calibration.
A question worth pursuing
How sensitive is chamber control to a modest common polling error?
Cite and share
This page provides an editorial introduction. Consult the paper for its complete evidence, assumptions, sources, and collaboration disclosures. Downloads preserve the edition retrieved on October 18, 2026.