The Centaur Papers
Rodney Malpert · Independent research

Big questions.
Visible assumptions.

Human judgment and artificial intelligence, working together on intelligence, consciousness, history, and the future.

Full papers & concise introductionsExplicit assumptions & uncertaintyStable pages · Dated editions
Start here

The intelligence transition

Read the risk assessment ↗

What happens when intelligence exceeds our own?

Understanding morality, acting on it, and protecting humanity are different problems. The AI-risk paper asks what could preserve a meaningful human future through a rapid transition to superintelligence.

AI Risk →

And what might the next three years look like?

A conditional future history explores what follows when AI begins improving AI: rapid changes in digital work, pressures on institutions, and a physical world that takes longer to rebuild.

AI Takeoff →
Research library

Follow the question.

13 papers
01
AI & the future

AI Risk

Intelligence is not a guarantee of benevolence. This paper asks what happens when civilization-relevant superintelligence arrives, distinguishing extinction, enduring domination, and catastrophe from which recovery remains possible.

October 18, 2026
90 pagesExplore paper ↗
02
AI & the future

AI Takeoff

What changes after AI can improve the process that improves AI? A conditional future history follows the consequences for research, jobs, households, institutions, and the physical economy.

September 2026
45 pagesExplore paper ↗
03
AI & the future

Catastrophic Human Misuse of Advanced AI

Human-directed harm is a distinct problem from autonomous loss of control. This assessment separates the ability to cause a major disaster from the ability to destroy society’s capacity to recover.

September 29, 2026
23 pagesExplore paper ↗
04
Methods

The Shrinking Island

What does a human contribute when AI can research, calculate, criticize, and write? Documented collaborations offer a concrete way to examine that question.

October 18, 2026
53 pagesExplore paper ↗
05
Methods

Bayesian Reasoning

Words such as “unlikely” already contain judgments. Bayesian reasoning puts those judgments where others can inspect and challenge them.

October 7, 2026
16 pagesExplore paper ↗
06
Mind & reality

Life After Death

Does the end of biological life necessarily end conscious existence? This paper separates evidence about brain dependence from assumptions about how a subject is produced or sustained.

October 18, 2026
37 pagesExplore paper ↗
08
Mind & reality

Cryonics and Personal Survival

If a future technology reconstructs a person, has that person survived? Technical restoration, consciousness, identity, and meaningful psychological continuation require separate answers.

October 18, 2026
31 pagesExplore paper ↗
10
History & evidence

Who Wrote Shakespeare?

A comparative assessment of the conventional attribution, Edward de Vere, Henry Neville, and other possible principal authors, with explicit attention to the assumptions driving disagreement.

October 10, 2026
48 pagesExplore paper ↗
11
History & evidence

The Historicity of Jesus

A focused historical question: did Christianity begin around an actual first-century Jewish founder? This reassessment compares the surviving evidence under historical and mythic-origin hypotheses.

September 2026
11 pagesExplore paper ↗
12
History & evidence

What Are UFOs?

Most unusual aerial reports can have ordinary explanations without resolving every strong case. The paper evaluates a mixed public record rather than assuming one cause for all sightings.

October 16, 2026
39 pagesExplore paper ↗
13
Forecasting

The 2026 Midterms

A dated forecast of House and Senate outcomes, with a separate examination of conventional and extraordinary response scenarios.

October 5, 2026
44 pagesExplore paper ↗
A shorter way in

Ideas before equations.

All essays ↗
The method

Make the disagreement useful.

A centaur combines human and AI contributions. Here, the aim is to make reasoning explicit enough that a reader can identify exactly where an argument should change.

Read the research standards →
  1. 01 / State the questionDefine the competing explanations and the scope of the claim.
  2. 02 / Expose the assumptionsSeparate starting judgments, evidence, and scenario conditions.
  3. 03 / Test and reviseInspect alternatives, dependence, and sensitivity to disputed inputs.
The human collaborator

Rodney Malpert

Lawyer, former adjunct professor, and chess Senior Master. Cornell J.D. and M.A. His current work uses sustained human–AI collaboration to examine difficult questions across disciplines.

About Rodney →
For editors, hosts, and readers

A conversation worth having.

Explore interview themes, find the relevant paper, or send a substantive challenge to the analysis.

Media & contact ↗