Bayesian Reasoning
A friendly FAQ on priors, evidence, and AI assistance
Words such as “unlikely” already contain judgments. Bayesian reasoning puts those judgments where others can inspect and challenge them.
The argument
The FAQ introduces priors, likelihood ratios, and updated assessments through worked examples. AI can help with arithmetic, evidence bookkeeping, and sensitivity checks, while substantive judgments remain accountable to reasons and evidence.
How to read this assessment
Correct arithmetic does not validate an unsupported prior or an exaggerated evidence weight. Dependence among observations must be addressed to avoid counting the same evidence repeatedly.
A question worth pursuing
Which assumption would have to change for you to reach a different conclusion?
Cite and share
This page provides an editorial introduction. Consult the paper for its complete evidence, assumptions, sources, and collaboration disclosures. Downloads preserve the edition retrieved on October 18, 2026.